MultiCliP will use the comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) developed at MPI-M in a hierarchy of model set-ups to identify mechanisms and feedbacks determining decadal to multi-decadal-scale variability, and to assess the role of external forcing (e.g., solar, volcanic). MultiCliP will derive implications and recommendations for decadal forecasts.
For these purposes, long-term climate simulations covering the last millennium and unforced control simulations as well as IPCC AR5 20th century simulations and respective control experiments will be analyzed. In addition, a number of sensitivity experiments will be carried out to isolate the effect of resolution in the respective model component and to analyze specific mechanisms.
MultiCliP will thus provide valuable information and recommendations for the configuration of the prototypical prediction system, and will further contribute to the assessment of uncertainty and limits of decadal climate predictability.