B-WP6 - PROCUP: PRedictability of the Oceanic Carbon UPtake

Project aims

The overarching goal of PROCUP is to investigate the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake with a special emphasis on the underlying mechanisms.

Project structure

We will work with the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system with the emphasis on its ocean biogeochemical component HAMOCC.

Tasks of the project

PROCUP identifies the following 3 main tasks:

  1. Evaluate model simulations which also involves observation data collection and validation.
  2. Investigate the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake and the responsible mechanisms in the context of a combination of biological, chemical, and physical processes.
  3. Assist establishing a decadal-prediction earth system model with good representation of the ocean biogeochemical processes.


The predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake.

Progress so far

The variability and predictablity of the oceanic carbon uptake reveal significant regional charateristics. Based on the state of ocean physical variables’ predictability, region such as the North Atlantic is identified for in-depth investigation. We find that the predictive skill of oceanic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic western subpolar gyre is up to 4-7 years.


Dr. Tatiana Ilyina
Dr. Hongmei Li

Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake

2016 - Nat. Commun. Vol. 7(11076)

Li, H. | T. Ilyina, W.A. Müller, F. Sienz