C2-WP3 - Multi-decadal variability – centennial downscaling and hindcasting

Project aims

The goal of this work package is to derive more robust estimates of the skill of decadal predictions for Europe over an extended hindcast period, following the study by Müller et al. (2014) in the MiKlip project DROUGHTCLIP. Regional hindcast experiments with CCLM, using forcing from 20th-century re-analysis and from MPI-ESM hindcast over an extended period starting 1901, will be performed to improve the coverage of different phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability and their climate impacts on Europe. These extended hindcasts will enable an improved attribution of the impacts of anthopogenic induced climate trends and natural variability over Europe and provide more robust skill estimates than is possible over general MiKlip investigation period (1961 – 2010). The effects of the European marginal seas will be attributed as well in this context.

Project structure

This work package C2-WP3 is handled by the Goethe University Frankfurt (GUF) and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). GUF performs the ocean-atmosphere coupled experiments with CCLM/NEMO and KIT the atmosphere-only simulations with CCLM. The analysis will be performed by both groups.

Tasks of the project

There are three sub-tasks:

  • Downscaling a global reference for the last century,
  • to perform hindcast experiments for this period atmosphere-only and with a coupled regional ocean
  • and to analyze the climate impacts of the multi-decadal variability in Europe.

Deliverables

D1a: Downscaled centennial reference datasets for Europe (atmosphere-only)
D1b: Downscaled centennial reference datasets for Europe (coupled ocean/atmosphere)
D2: Centennial hindcasts (coupled and un-coupled)
D3: Information on the climate impacts of the multi-decadal variability in Europe

Progress so far

So far tests regarding an optimized configuration have been performed. Testing and implementation of the European northern (Baltic and North Sea) and southern (Mediterranean Sea) marginal Seas coupled to the atmospheric model is ongoing.