The goal of this work package is to derive more robust estimates of the skill of decadal predictions for Europe over an extended hindcast period, following the study by Müller et al. (2014) in the MiKlip project DROUGHTCLIP. Regional hindcast experiments with CCLM, using forcing from 20th-century re-analysis and from MPI-ESM hindcast over an extended period starting 1901, will be performed to improve the coverage of different phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability and their climate impacts on Europe. These extended hindcasts will enable an improved attribution of the impacts of anthopogenic induced climate trends and natural variability over Europe and provide more robust skill estimates than is possible over general MiKlip investigation period (1961 – 2010). The effects of the European marginal seas will be attributed as well in this context.
This work package C2-WP3 is handled by the Goethe University Frankfurt (GUF) and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). GUF performs the ocean-atmosphere coupled experiments with CCLM/NEMO and KIT the atmosphere-only simulations with CCLM. The analysis will be performed by both groups.
There are three sub-tasks:
D1a: Downscaled centennial reference datasets for Europe (atmosphere-only)
D1b: Downscaled centennial reference datasets for Europe (coupled ocean/atmosphere)
D2: Centennial hindcasts (coupled and un-coupled)
D3: Information on the climate impacts of the multi-decadal variability in Europe
Within the work package a downscaling with CCLM of the three-member MiKlip I DROUGHTCLIP ensemble of assimilation simulations has been performed over the period 1900 – 2009. The DROUGHTCLIP simulations were driven by NCEP 20CR reanalysis. In addition coupled regional simulations with CCLM-NEMO for the period have been generated, as well as atmosphere only downscaling of the DROUGHTCLIP 20th century hindcasts.
These centennial simulations are analyzed with respect to the long-term climate variability and predictability in connection with teleconnections affecting Europe.
Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt Goethe University Frankfurt/Main
+49 69 798-40244
+49 69 798-40325
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
+49 721 608-24942
Obermann-Hellhund, A. | D. Conte, S. Somot, C. Zsolt Torma, and B. Ahrens
Obermann, A. | B. Edelmann, and B. Ahrens
Obermann, A. | S. Bastin, S. Belamari, D. Conte, M. A. Gaertner, L. Li, and B. Ahrens