Module D - Synthesis

MiKlip II improves the decadal climate prediction system of the first MiKlip phase through further research and development. Module D provides the essential scientific and technical infrastructure for the prediction system.

The main goals of Module D are:

  • The further development and improvement of the global decadal prediction and evaluation system,
  • The transfer of the decadal prediction and evaluation system for operational use at the DWD
  • Pilot studies on the use of decadal climate prediction in government agencies and the private sector
  • MiKlip Coordination


MiKlip II is divided in two development stages: one pre-operational and one quasi-operational phase. In each of the phases Module D produces retrospective predictions – “hindcasts”, predictions, as well as analysis of these. All of these are accessible for all project partners on the project-owned server – the MiKlip server.
  

Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 721-738

Kruschke, T. | H.W. Rust, C. Kadow, W.A. Müller, H.Pohlmann, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich

Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 631-643

Kadow, C. | S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch

Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment

2015 - J. Climate, Vol. 28 (11), pp. 4454-4470

Corti, S. | T. Palmer, M. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, S. Drijfhout, N. Dunstone, W. Hazeleger, J. Kröger, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith, J. von Storch, J., and B. Wouters

An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions

2015 - Clim. Dyn., Vol. 44, pp. 2787-2806

Bellucci, A. | R. Haarsma, S. Gualdi, P. J. Athanasiadis, M. Caian, C. Cassou, E. Fernandez, A. Germe, J. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Salas y Melia, E. Sanchez, D. Smith, L. Terray, K. Wyser, and S. Yang

A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s

2015 - Clim. Dyn., Vol. 44 (7), pp. 1935-1955

Müller, W. A. | D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann, G. P. Compo, P. D. Sardeshmukh, and J. Marotzke

Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 645-655

Sienz, F. | H. Pohlmann, and W.A. Müller

Visualization of 2D Uncertainty in Decadal Climate Predictions

2015 - Workshop on Visualisation in Environmental Sciences (EnvirVis), Cagliari

Böttinger, M. | H. Pohlmann, N. Röber, K. Meier-Fleischer, D. Spickermann

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

2014 - Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 9, pp 2723-2735

Baehr, J. | K. Fröhlich, M. Botzet, D. Domeisen, L. Kornblueh, D. Notz, R. Piontek, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, W. A. Müller

Contact

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Dr. Sebastian Hettrich
sebastian.hettrich(at)nospammpimet.mpg.de