Module D - Synthesis

MiKlip II improves the decadal climate prediction system of the first MiKlip phase through further research and development. Module D provides the essential scientific and technical infrastructure for the prediction system.

The main goals of Module D are:

  • The further development and improvement of the global decadal prediction and evaluation system,
  • The transfer of the decadal prediction and evaluation system for operational use at the DWD
  • Pilot studies on the use of decadal climate prediction in government agencies and the private sector
  • MiKlip Coordination

MiKlip II is divided in two development stages: one pre-operational and one quasi-operational phase. In each of the phases Module D produces retrospective predictions – “hindcasts”, predictions, as well as analysis of these. All of these are accessible for all project partners on the project-owned server – the MiKlip server.

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

2014 - BAMS, Vol. 95 (2), pp. 243-267

Meehl, G. | L. Goddard, B. Kirtman, G. Branstator, G. Danabasoglu, E. Hawkins, A. Kumar, T. Rosati, D. Smith, R. Sutton, G. Boer, R. Burgman, C. Carson, S. Corti, A. Karspeck, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, D. Matei, J. Mignot, R. Msadek, A. Navarra, H. Pohlmann, M. Rienecker, E. Schneider, C. Tebaldi, H. Teng, G. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and S. Yeager

Comments on “Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations”

2014 - J. Climate, Vol. 27 (1), pp. 487-489

Smith, D. | N. Dunstone, R. Eade , D. Fereday, J. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, and A. Scaife, A

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

2013 - Clim. Dyn, Vol. 41, pp. 2875-2888

Smith, D. M. | A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, E. Hawkins, W. Hazeleger, L. Hermanson, C. K. Ho, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, J. Lean, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, A. Rosati, B. Wouters, and K. Wyser

Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

2013 - Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 40, pp. 5798-5802

Pohlmann, H. | W. A. Müller, K. Kulkarni, M. Kameswarrao, D. Matei, F. S. E. Vamborg, C. Kadow, S. Illing, J. Marotzke

Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model

2013 - J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118

Menary, M. B. | C. D. Roberts, M. D. Palmer, P. R. Halloran, L. Jackson, R. A. Wood, W. A. Müller, D. Matei, and S.-K. Lee

Predicting multiyear North Atlantic Ocean variability

2013 - Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, Vol. 118, pp. 1087-1098

Hazeleger, W. | B. Wouters, G. van Oldenborgh, S. Corti, D. Smith, N. Dunstone, J. Kroeger, H. Pohlmann, and J.-S. von Storch

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

2013 - Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, pp. 3325-3338

Smith, D. | R. Eade, and H. Pohlmann

Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system

2013 - Clim Dyn, Vol. 41, pp. 775-785

Pohlmann, H. | D. Smith, M. Balmaseda, N. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. Müller, and P. Rogel


Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Dr. Sebastian Hettrich