As part of MiKlip II Module D the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) will focus on bringing the decadal prediction system into operational practice by developing prototype products for selected users from the private sector. In close interaction with users and scientists the usability of the decadal prediction system will be analysed and eventually improved. Ultimately, we aim to support the users in their decision-making processes with tailor-made prototype products, and thus to provide them with solutions for climate related problems on a decadal time scale.
The structure of the work package is visualized in a time line sketch (figure 1). The figure illustrates the two-way interactive processes, tasks and workflows of the three different actors (i.e., users from the private sector, GERICS, developers of the decadal prediction system) as well as the aims and additional benefits of the work package (see also next paragraph).
In order to develop and select first case studies users' needs will be identified in close cooperation with the users in first workshops. The selected case studies should preferably cover different combinations of industries, topics, and regions. In this first phase, an evaluation method for the first case studies and a product development process for the future prototype products will be established. Furthermore, criteria of usefulness for the decadal prediction system will be identified that will be fed back to the developers of the system. At the end of MiKlip II's second year all case studies will be selected by using the established evaluation method. Based on this selection, the tailor-made prototype products will be co-developed with selected users. At the end of the project the gained knowledge and experiences from the iterative improvement process of the interaction between the users, GERICS, and the decadal prediction system will be analysed and summerised.
GERICS will provide a pilot study on the usefulness of decadal predictions for the private sector. (On the way to the final pilot study, case studies and prototype products will be co-developed with selected users. Additionally, studies on the criteria of usefulness and on the iterative improvement process for the decadal prediction system will be compiled.)
In the first two months the strategic approach was concretised in several informal meetings. Furthermore, first steps were taken to establish a method for the evaluation process and for the prototype product development. First users have already been contacted and an overview of (further) potentially interested users was prepared toset the starting point for identifying promising user-topic-region combinations for the first case studies. A literature research on the results of MiKlip I, regarding the evaluation methods of predictability as well as regions and variables with a „good“ prediction skill, was completed.
Prototype product: GERICS defines a prototypical method or service as novel, innovative, and
research-based information, processes or methods that integrate climate knowledge into decisionmaking
processes. In this case novel means that the product provides an additional value that has
not been covered before. A prototype product is co-developed with users and scientists to satisfy
specific needs of a region, a topic or a sector. After the development process the prototype products
can be operationalised (Juliane Petersen, personal communication, 2015).