Module E - Evaluation of the MiKlip decadal prediction system

Module E is evaluating hindcasts from the MiKlip decadal prediction system focusing the main pillars: i) generation of observational data sets and their use for an improved validation of hindcasts, ii) hindcast verification, i.e. the development and implementation of procedures for a quantitative estimation of forecast quality, and iii) process-oriented validation to enhance the understanding and thus the credibility of the prediction system and its products.

Working towards an operational system in MiKlip II, an additional focus comes up: the transfer of predictions from the MiKlip system into probabilistic forecast products for users. This implies a) bias correction of predictions taking a model drift and a climate trend into account, b) calibration of probabilistic forecasts to increase reliability, and c) the construction of forecasts for user-relevant quantities and events, such as heat-waves, droughts, storm surges or other kinds of large-scale climate anomalies.

These pillars define five Module E objectives paving the way towards a useroriented operational system:
1. Bias and Drift correction, Calibration
2. User-oriented post-processing
3. Process-oriented validation
4. Generation of data sets
5. Hindcast verification

A meteorological and 5chemical overview of the DACCIWA field campaign in West Africa in June–July 2016

2017 - Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10893–10918

Knippertz, P. | Fink, A. H., Deroubaix, A., Morris, E., Tocquer, F., Evans, M. J., Flamant, C., Gaetani, M., Lavaysse, C., Mari, C., Marsham, J. H., Meynadier, R., Affo-Dogo, A., Bahaga, T., Brosse, F., Deetz, K., Guebsi, R., Latifou, I., Maranan, M., Rosenberg, P. D., and Schlueter, A.

Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

2017 - Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., in review

Pasternack, A. | J. Bhend, M. A. Liniger, H. W. Rust, W. A. Müller, and U. Ulbrich, U

A Global ETCCDI-Based Precipitation Climatology from Satellite and Rain Gauge Measurements

2017 - Climate, 5, 9

Dietzsch, F. | A. Andersson, M. Ziese, M. Schröder, K. Raykova, K. Schamm, A. Becker

Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European radiosonde data

2016 - Met. Z., Vol. 25 No. 6 (2016), p. 709 - 720

Pattantyús-Ábrahám, M. | C. Kadow, S. Illing, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, W. Steinbrecht

Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data

2016 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift

Westermayer A.T. | P. Groenemeijer, G. Pistotnik, R. Sausen and E. Faust