Module E - Evaluation of the MiKlip decadal prediction system

Module E is evaluating hindcasts from the MiKlip decadal prediction system focusing the main pillars: i) generation of observational data sets and their use for an improved validation of hindcasts, ii) hindcast verification, i.e. the development and implementation of procedures for a quantitative estimation of forecast quality, and iii) process-oriented validation to enhance the understanding and thus the credibility of the prediction system and its products.

Working towards an operational system in MiKlip II, an additional focus comes up: the transfer of predictions from the MiKlip system into probabilistic forecast products for users. This implies a) bias correction of predictions taking a model drift and a climate trend into account, b) calibration of probabilistic forecasts to increase reliability, and c) the construction of forecasts for user-relevant quantities and events, such as heat-waves, droughts, storm surges or other kinds of large-scale climate anomalies.

These pillars define five Module E objectives paving the way towards a useroriented operational system:
1. Bias and Drift correction, Calibration
2. User-oriented post-processing
3. Process-oriented validation
4. Generation of data sets
5. Hindcast verification

HOAPS/GPCC global daily precipitation data record with uncertainty estimates using satellite and gauge based observations (at 1.0° and 2.5°, at 0.5° only Europe)

2016 - Version 1, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, ) at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

Andersson, A. | M. Ziese, F. Dietzsch, M. Schröder, A. Becker, and K. Schamm

Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 721-738

Kruschke, T. | H.W. Rust, C. Kadow, W.A. Müller, H.Pohlmann, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich

Temperature Trends over Germany from Homogenized Radiosonde Data

2015 - J. Climate, Vol. 28 (14), pp. 5699-5715

Pattantyús-Ábrahám M. | W. Steinbrecht

Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 631-643

Kadow, C. | S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West Africa

2015 - Int. J. Climatol., Vol. 35 (15), pp. 4589–4605

Sanogo, S. | A. H. Fink, J. A. Omotosho, A. Ba, R. Redl, and V. Ermert

A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s

2015 - Clim. Dyn., Vol. 44 (7), pp. 1935-1955

Müller, W. A. | D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann, G. P. Compo, P. D. Sardeshmukh, and J. Marotzke

Evaluation of the MiKlip decadal prediction system using satellite based cloud products

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 695-707

Spangehl, T. | M. Schröder, S. Stolzenberger, R. Glowienka-Hense, A. Mazurkiewicz, and A. Hense

Revealing skill of the MiKlip decadal prediction system by three-dimensional probabilistic evaluation

2015 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift,, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 657-671

Stolzenberger, S. | R. Glowienka-Hense, T. Spangehl, M. Schröder, A. Mazurkiewicz, and A. Hense