Module E is evaluating hindcasts from the MiKlip decadal prediction system focusing the main pillars: i) generation of observational data sets and their use for an improved validation of hindcasts, ii) hindcast verification, i.e. the development and implementation of procedures for a quantitative estimation of forecast quality, and iii) process-oriented validation to enhance the understanding and thus the credibility of the prediction system and its products.
Working towards an operational system in MiKlip II, an additional focus comes up: the transfer of predictions from the MiKlip system into probabilistic forecast products for users. This implies a) bias correction of predictions taking a model drift and a climate trend into account, b) calibration of probabilistic forecasts to increase reliability, and c) the construction of forecasts for user-relevant quantities and events, such as heat-waves, droughts, storm surges or other kinds of large-scale climate anomalies.
These pillars define five Module E objectives paving the way towards a useroriented operational system:
1. Bias and Drift correction, Calibration
2. User-oriented post-processing
3. Process-oriented validation
4. Generation of data sets
5. Hindcast verification
Kruschke, T. | H.W. Rust, C. Kadow, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich
Nissen, K. M. | U. Ulbrich, G. C. Leckebusch, and I. Kuhnel
Müller, W. A. | H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith
Diatta, S. | A. H. Fink
Schamm, K. | M. Ziese, A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, U. Schneider, M. Schröder, and P. Stender
Xu, X. | H. E. Hurlburt, W.J. Schmitz Jr., R. Zantopp, J. Fischer, and P. J. Hogan