E-WP1 - MOSQUITO

Model Output Statistics QUalified by Intercomparison with True Observations

Project aims

The first phase of MiKlip has shown that MiKlip model simulations generally produce lower than observed temperatures in the troposphere. The model atmosphere is also too moist and vertical stability is less than observed. Depending on the model initialization, the simulated temperatures also drift over some of the simulation years. The aims of project MOSQUITO are a comprehensive characterization of these biases and drifts, using high quality radiosonde data as a reference. In addition, representation errors of large scale model simulations and meteorological reanalysis fields will be investigated by comparison with the small scale structure present in the radiosonde data.

Project Structure

MOSQUITO belongs to Module E and is a work-package of the Module-E DWD project. MOSQUITO will be carried out at DWD’s Meteorological Observatory Hohenpeissenberg

Tasks of the project

MOSQUITO will extend the high quality observational database from radiosondes. The observations will be used to estimate systematic errors and uncertainties of meteorological re-analyses and MiKlip global and regional simulations. After characterization, calibration procedures for simulated temperature and humidity profiles will be implemented. Among other things, this should improve probability forecasts for severe weather events.

Fig 1. Systematic temperature bias of MiKlip simulated temperature against radiosonde observations over Germany. B0-lR, B1-LR, B1-MR and P-LR are baseline 0, baseline 1 and prototype low resolution (LR) and mixed resolution (MR) experiments. B1-LR-reg is the COSMO regional simulations for B1-LR.
Fig 2. Same as in 1. but showing the change of temperature bias at 500 hPa as a function of forecast year. The full-field initialization in P-LR results in a large drift. (Click to enlarge)

Deliverables

The project will deliver data-sets to the central MiKlip server and the Central Evaluation System. Calibration procedures will be integrated into the general model post-processing.

Progress so far

The MOSQUITO project will become operational in the 4th quarter of 2016.

Contact

Deutscher Wetterdienst - German Weather Service
Wolfgang Steinbrecht
+49-(0) 69-8062-9772

Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European radiosonde data

2016 - Met. Z., Vol. 25 No. 6 (2016), p. 709 - 720

Pattantyús-Ábrahám, M. | C. Kadow, S. Illing, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, W. Steinbrecht

Temperature Trends over Germany from Homogenized Radiosonde Data

2015 - J. Climate, Vol. 28 (14), pp. 5699-5715

Pattantyús-Ábrahám M. | W. Steinbrecht