26-01-2017

First experimental decadal climate forecasts in online interactive tool

The MiKlip project has as its main aim to develop an operational decadal climate prediction system to be hosted and run by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD).

A large step towards this goal was reached today, when a first version of the operational chain was successfully completed, culminating in the online publication of the MiKlip decadal forecasts on its website. 

The website presents the current decadal near-surface air temperature forecasts for 2017-2026 for both the entire Globe and for the North Atlantic. It is envisaged to include further forecast variables and regions in future issues of the forecasts. On the website, the visitor has the opportunity to interactively explore what kind of information decadal climate forecasts can provide, whilst at the same time obtaining an indication about the skill of the MiKlip System.

Since these forecasts are still in the development stage, the shown forecasts should be understood as an experiment and should not be used as a basis for decisions.

The website allows visitors to explore two different types of forecasts, displayed as time series and maps. The website also provides an evaluation of the skill of the MiKlip system, that is, how well retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) have captured observations in the past. The forecast skill of the MiKlip system is compared to the forecast skill of two standard reference forecasts (climatology and climate projections).

Website visitors are encouraged to leave their feedback by clicking the feedback button.  

Direct link to the MiKlip decadal forecasts for 2017-2016:

https://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-climate-prediction-system/decadal-forecast-for-2017-2026/

Further information:
Those wishing to find out more about decadal climate predictions and the science behind them are invited to visit the pages on “overview on decadal climate prediction” (available in German only) and the pages about specific MiKlip research work packages.

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 311 (Kornelia Müller)
Email: jochem.marotzke(at)nospammpimet.mpg.de

Dr. Freja Vamborg
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 310
Email: freja.vamborg(at)nospammpimet.mpg.de

Dr. Wolfgang Müller
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 370
Email: wolfgang.mueller(at)nospammpimet.mpg.de 

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