Of central importance for the development process of the MiKlip system is the data and process based validation of the decadal scale prediction system during the three development stages of MiKlip. Furthermore, the generation of the decadal forecasts is based on an ensemble approach which requires the deduction of suitable probabilistic information from the different ensemble simulations. Of crucial importance is the evaluation of atmospheric water cycle components including clouds and related changes in the radiation budget. Additionally, the representation of extreme precipitation events requires the accurate simulation of precipitation variability.
Within the DAPACLIP project precipitation products for the evaluation of the MiKlip prediction system will be developed in close contact with the modelling community. These new data sets will allow to evaluate daily precipitation statistics from global and regional decadal MiKlip hindcasts. The focus will be on parameters of interest for potential users of the MiKlip predictions, such as the intensity, frequency and relative persistence of extreme precipitation and dry spells.
It is envisaged to produce data sets that are derived from a high quality global precipitation climatology (1988-2008) with daily data fields and several grid resolutions (1.0° x 1.0° and 2.5° x 2.5°; over Europe: 0.5°). The data sets will be based on an optimum combination of the in situ-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation analyses for land surface areas and the satellite-derived Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS) precipitation analyses for ocean surface areas. An unprecedented feature in comparison to previous efforts is to allow for a traceable estimation of the uncertainty of the aspired data product.
Furthermore, the data sets and methods developed in this project will be included in the MiKlip evaluation infrastructure (project INTEGRATION ; project VECAP) for the evaluation of precipitation statistics in global and regional simulations.