Many users need reliable information on trends in weather and climate. This also comprises information on the validity and uncertainty of the provided forecasts and predictions. In the near future, regularly updated forecasts based on the results of the MiKlip decadal forecast system will be available. This includes an ensemble of predictions allowing probabilistic forecasts on a global and regional scale for a timeframe from years to decades. Resilient forecasts include information on the reliability and uncertainty of the data provided.
Those long term forecasts often show systematic deviations (bias) from the observed weather and climate. To provide useful information and support forend users a bias adjustment including a model drift correction followed by an application specific evaluation is required. Also a clear communication of the underlying assumptions and known limitations are necessary.
Based on a couple of test cases, a prototype model–user interface called SUPPORT will be implemented and analysed. These test cases will be defined in close collaboration with the persons responsible at the national and international institutions mostly with already long term partnerships with DWD. In cooperation with these selected end users an analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio will be performed in order to estimate the usefulness of the information.
A user workshop is hosted every year. Those workshops provide a key interface to users. The first workshop took place at the Deutscher Wetterdienst in Offenbach on April 06-07, 2016 (a summary in German can be found on the right).
The work is done by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) in cooperation with Module C and E.
T1 Identification of user needs
Based on face-to-face communication, yearly workshops and questionnaires an analysis of user needs is performed.
T2 Development of user specific post processing methods
Based on the results from T1 a user specific interface will be implemented. The implementation will be partly based on routines from MiKlip-Modules C and E.
D1 Implementation of user workshops
D2 Development and Implementation of a user specific post processing tool
A questionnaire on user needs revealed large interest in decadal temperature, precipitation and wind predictions over Germany including information on skill and spread. The user workshop 2016 in Offenbach showed various needs of different user groups: original data, specific predictions or general information.
Within MiKlip the multi-layer MiKlip prediction website has been developed showing decadal temperature predictions as 4-year means on a 5° grid with background information. The user workshop 2017 in Stahnsdorf discussed user needs and possible decadal prediction products. There is large interest in decadal predictions. However, the discussions and a questionnaire on the website showed that decadal products like the website should contain further variables, higher resolution over Europe and a simpler starting point. These requirements are currently being implemented.
The skill of further variables, like precipitation, wind and storm frequency, has been analysed analogue to the website. The GPCC drought index of the DWD combining standardised precipitation and standardised climatic water balance has been applied for decadal predictions. Further products like ETCCDI extreme indices and the implementation of the operational user-oriented interface are prepared. Personal interviews with governmental agencies and international organisations have been conducted to facilitate individual feedbacks on existing products and co-operations in developing new products. A newsletter informs 75 interested persons on decadal prediction product news.
1st workshop summary (PDF in German)