Module D - Synthesis

MiKlip II improves the decadal climate prediction system of the first MiKlip phase through further research and development. Module D provides the essential scientific and technical infrastructure for the prediction system.

The main goals of Module D are:

The further development and improvement of the global decadal prediction and evaluation system,
The transfer of the decadal prediction and evaluation system for operational use at the DWD
Pilot studies on the use of decadal climate prediction in government agencies and the private sector
MiKlip Coordination

MiKlip II is divided in two development stages: one pre-operational and one quasi-operational phase. In each of the phases Module D produces retrospective predictions – “hindcasts”, predictions, as well as analysis of these. All of these are accessible for all project partners on the project-owned server – the MiKlip server.

Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: predictive skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependency

2019 - Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, 2019

Reyers, M. | Feldmann, H., Mieruch, S., Pinto, J. G., Uhlig, M., Ahrens, B., Früh, B., Modali, K., Laube, N., Moemken, J., Müller, W., Schädler, G., Kottmeier, C.

MiKlip II Module C C1-WP2 - Predictive potential of land surfaces Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module C Module D MiKlip II Module C C1-WP2 - Predictive potential of land surfaces Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module C Module D

Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods

2019 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Polkova, I | Brune, S., Kadow, C., Romanova, V., Gollan, G., Baehr, J., Glowienka-Hense, R., Greatbatch, R.J., Hense, A., Illing, S., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Müller, W.A., Pankatz, K., Stammer, D.

MiKlip II Module A AODA-PENG II Module A Coordination Module B ATMOS-MODINI Module D FLEXFORDEC INTEGRATION OPERATIONS News New publication Module A Module B Module D MiKlip II Module A AODA-PENG II Module A Coordination Module B ATMOS-MODINI Module D FLEXFORDEC INTEGRATION OPERATIONS News New publication Module A Module B Module D

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

2018 - Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, no. 21, 11,895-11,903

Smith, D.M. | Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E. , Bilbao, R., Boer, G.J., Caian, M., Caron, L.‐P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas‐Reyes, F.J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N.J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G.A., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W.J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W.A., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Sospedra‐Alfonso, R., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X., Yeager, S.

MiKlip II Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module D MiKlip II Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module D

Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems

2018 - International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, no.2, 974-988

Scaife, A. | Ferranti, L., Alves, O., Athanasidis, P., Baehr, J., Deque, M., Dippe, T., Dunestone, N., Fereday, D., Gudgel, R.G., Greatbatch, R., Hermanson, L., Imada, Y., Jain, S., Kumar, A., MacLachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W.A., Ren, H.-L., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., Vecchi, G., Yang, X.

MiKlip II Module B ATMOS-MODINI Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module B Module D MiKlip II Module B ATMOS-MODINI Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module B Module D

Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region

2018 - J. Climate, 31, 6763–6782

Borchert, L.F. | Müller, W.A., Baehr, J.

MiKlip II Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module D MiKlip II Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module D

Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five‐Layer Soil‐Hydrology Scheme

2018 - Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346–353

Bunzel, F. | Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Tobias Stacke, Baehr, J.

MiKlip II Module A PastLand II Module D FLEXFORDEC News New publication Module A Module D MiKlip II Module A PastLand II Module D FLEXFORDEC News New publication Module A Module D

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

2018 - Climate Dynamics 51(5-6), 1947–1970

Brune, S. | Düsterhus, A., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. A., Baehr, J.

MiKlip II Module A AODA-PENG II Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module A Module D MiKlip II Module A AODA-PENG II Module D FLEXFORDEC Regions Module A Module D

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

2018 - Environ. Res. Lett. 13 064026

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez | Chao Li, Wolfgang A Müller, Jochem Marotzke

MiKlip II Module D FLEXFORDEC New publication Module D MiKlip II Module D FLEXFORDEC New publication Module D

Module Information

Contact

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Dr. Sebastian Hettrich