Module D - Synthesis

MiKlip II improves the decadal climate prediction system of the first MiKlip phase through further research and development. Module D provides the essential scientific and technical infrastructure for the prediction system.

The main goals of Module D are:

  • The further development and improvement of the global decadal prediction and evaluation system,
  • The transfer of the decadal prediction and evaluation system for operational use at the DWD
  • Pilot studies on the use of decadal climate prediction in government agencies and the private sector
  • MiKlip Coordination


MiKlip II is divided in two development stages: one pre-operational and one quasi-operational phase. In each of the phases Module D produces retrospective predictions – “hindcasts”, predictions, as well as analysis of these. All of these are accessible for all project partners on the project-owned server – the MiKlip server.
  

Initialization and Ensemble Generation for Decadal Climate Predictions: A Comparison of Different Methods

2019 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Polkova, I | Brune, S., Kadow, C., Romanova, V., Gollan, G., Baehr, J., Glowienka-Hense, R., Greatbatch, R.J., Hense, A., Illing, S., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Müller, W.A., Pankatz, K., Stammer, D.

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

2018 - Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, no. 21, 11,895-11,903

Smith, D.M. | Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E. , Bilbao, R., Boer, G.J., Caian, M., Caron, L.‐P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas‐Reyes, F.J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N.J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G.A., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W.J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W.A., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Sospedra‐Alfonso, R., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X., Yeager, S.

Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems

2018 - International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, no.2, 974-988

Scaife, A. | Ferranti, L., Alves, O., Athanasidis, P., Baehr, J., Deque, M., Dippe, T., Dunestone, N., Fereday, D., Gudgel, R.G., Greatbatch, R., Hermanson, L., Imada, Y., Jain, S., Kumar, A., MacLachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W.A., Ren, H.-L., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., Vecchi, G., Yang, X.

Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five‐Layer Soil‐Hydrology Scheme

2018 - Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346–353

Bunzel, F. | Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Tobias Stacke, Baehr, J.

Contact

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Dr. Sebastian Hettrich
sebastian.hettrich(at)nospammpimet.mpg.de