Module D - Synthesis

MiKlip II improves the decadal climate prediction system of the first MiKlip phase through further research and development. Module D provides the essential scientific and technical infrastructure for the prediction system.

The main goals of Module D are:

  • The further development and improvement of the global decadal prediction and evaluation system,
  • The transfer of the decadal prediction and evaluation system for operational use at the DWD
  • Pilot studies on the use of decadal climate prediction in government agencies and the private sector
  • MiKlip Coordination

MiKlip II is divided in two development stages: one pre-operational and one quasi-operational phase. In each of the phases Module D produces retrospective predictions – “hindcasts”, predictions, as well as analysis of these. All of these are accessible for all project partners on the project-owned server – the MiKlip server.

Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies

2014 - Tellus A 2014, Vol. 66, 22830

Kruschke, T. | H.W. Rust, C. Kadow, G.C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich

MurCSS: A Tool for Standardized Evaluation of Decadal Hindcast Systems

2014 - Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 2(1):e24

Illing, S. | C. Kadow, O. Kunst, and U. Cubasch

Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901–2010 with a coupled climate model

2014 - Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 41 (6), pp. 2100–2107

Müller, W. A. | H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith

Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

2014 - Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 41 (5), pp. 1752–1758

Scaife, A. A. | M. Athanassiadou, M. Andrews, A. Arribas, M. Baldwin, N. Dunstone, J. Knight, C. MacLachlan, E. Manzini, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith., T. Stockdale, and A. Williams

Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

2014 - BAMS, Vol. 95 (2), pp. 243-267

Meehl, G. | L. Goddard, B. Kirtman, G. Branstator, G. Danabasoglu, E. Hawkins, A. Kumar, T. Rosati, D. Smith, R. Sutton, G. Boer, R. Burgman, C. Carson, S. Corti, A. Karspeck, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, D. Matei, J. Mignot, R. Msadek, A. Navarra, H. Pohlmann, M. Rienecker, E. Schneider, C. Tebaldi, H. Teng, G. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and S. Yeager

Comments on “Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations”

2014 - J. Climate, Vol. 27 (1), pp. 487-489

Smith, D. | N. Dunstone, R. Eade , D. Fereday, J. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, and A. Scaife, A

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

2013 - Clim. Dyn, Vol. 41, pp. 2875-2888

Smith, D. M. | A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, E. Hawkins, W. Hazeleger, L. Hermanson, C. K. Ho, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, J. Lean, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, A. Rosati, B. Wouters, and K. Wyser

Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

2013 - Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 40, pp. 5798-5802

Pohlmann, H. | W. A. Müller, K. Kulkarni, M. Kameswarrao, D. Matei, F. S. E. Vamborg, C. Kadow, S. Illing, J. Marotzke


Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology
Dr. Sebastian Hettrich