Of central importance for the development process of the MiKlip system is the data and process based validation of the decadal scale prediction system during the three development stages of MiKlip. Furthermore, the generation of the decadal forecasts is based on an ensemble approach which requires the deduction of suitable probabilistic information from the different ensemble simulations. Of crucial importance is the evaluation of atmospheric water cycle components including clouds and related changes in the radiation budget. Additionally, the representation of extreme precipitation events requires the accurate simulation of precipitation variability.
The VECAP project contributes by the provision of a basic suite of statistical methods for the evaluation of the decadal hindcast and forecast experiments. According to the MiKlip validation strategy the suite enables a standardised validation of the forecast system using scores and skill scores. The suite will continuously be upgraded during the runtime of the project aiming at a comprehensive data and process based validation.
The project contributes to the evaluation of the decadal scale prediction system by comparison of the simulations with reanalysis and satellite products. Virtual satellite measurements calculated from the climate simulations for comparison with satellite based observations such as inferred from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation radar (TRMM-PR) are developed and used for the evaluation of climate feedbacks and precipitation variability. While the focus of the project is on the evaluation of the global model system the developed methods will potentially also be suited for application to the regional model simulations.
This description regards the project during the first phase of MiKlip. VeCAP continues in MiKlip II, under the project name PROVESIMAC.
Meteorologisches Institut Universität Bonn (MIUB)
Dr. Rita Glowienka-Hense
Dr. Thomas Spangehl
University of Birmingham
PD Dr. Gregor Leckebusch